SPORTS BETTING FUNDAMENTALS
Most bettors lose not because they pick wrong — they lose because they never account for the margin baked into every line.
Vig — short for vigorish — is the commission a sportsbook charges on every wager. It's also called the juice or the hold. It's not a separate fee you see on your receipt. It's hidden inside the odds. When a book posts any line, they've already built in their profit. You pay it on every single bet, whether you win or lose.
A fair coin-flip market would price both sides at +100 (even money). Sportsbooks price both sides at -110 instead. Here's what that does:
-110 implied probability = 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4%
Two sides at 52.4% each = 104.8% total
4.8% is the vig — profit locked in regardless of the outcome
If $10,000 is wagered equally on both sides, the book pays out $9,090.90 to winners — pocketing roughly $909 on a market where they took zero risk.
Imagine you bet $100 per game, 1,000 times a year. You pick randomly — winning exactly 50% of the time.
You broke even on picks and still lost $4,545. That's the vig at work. To profit, you need to win more than 52.4% — just to overcome the margin before generating any actual profit.
Convert each side's odds to implied probability, then add them together. Anything above 100% is vig.
Negative odds: probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100)
Positive odds: probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
Over -130: 130/230 = 56.5%
Under +110: 100/210 = 47.6%
Total: 104.1% — Vig is 4.1%
Once you remove the vig, you see the true market probability — what sharp money actually implies about the outcome. If your own model gives the over a 62% chance and no-vig says 57%, you have a genuine edge. If your model says 55% and no-vig says 57%, you're just paying extra to be on the wrong side. No-vig math converts odds from marketing language back into honest probability.
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